The US dollar returns to the $98 mark, is the "Puze Club" on the way?

On August 19, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.86. On Monday, the US dollar index rebounded during the day and returned to above the $98 mark, finally closing up 0.31% to 98.12; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.340%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.771%. Spot gold rose first and then fell, and once approached the 3360 mark during the session, but then continued to fall, and accelerated its decline before the US session, erasing all the intraday gains, and finally closed down 0.09% to close at $3332.67/ounce; spot silver closed up 0.09% to $38.00/ounce. Crude oil rose slightly as U.S. advisers insisted that India must stop buying Russian crude oil. WTI crude oil fell to an intraday low of $61.41 in the US session, and then strongly recovered all lost ground, finally closing up 0.43% to $62.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.54% to $65.95 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.17. The US dollar index was 98.0199 on Monday, up 0.19% during the day, showing signs of stabilization in the low-level fluctuations. The US bond market is also highly concerned, with the yield curve steepening to its most significant level since October 2021, and the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yield gap (5s/30s) widening to 108.3 basis points overnight, setting a new high in recent years. Market sentiment sways between optimism and prudence, the stock market has set new highs and the corporate credit spread has narrowed, reflecting the superficial healthy scene of the US economy. However, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical situation and energyPotential volatility in prices adds ehadb.cnplexity to the market. Technically, if the US dollar index successfully closes above the 98.00-98.20 resistance level, it will move to the next resistance level, that is, in the 99.20-99.40 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1656. The euro/dollar began the week with a lower stance, down 0.30%, as traders awaited the outcome of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, after Trump met with Russian President Putin last Friday. The EU's economic agenda will include the release of EU inflation data, the August HCOB News PMI and Germany's GDP data. Technically, if the EUR/USD falls below 50MA, it will move towards the support level in the range of 1.1575–1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3502. The GBP/USD started the new trading week with a weak performance, with the market falling by about a quarter of a percentage point at the opening. The US dollar (USD) cut its overall losses last week, and short-term gains in the pound (GBP) were suppressed on Monday. The week started with a quiet start, with not much important content on the data agenda. However, this will change on Wednesday, with a new round of key economic data releases from the UK and the start of this year's Jackson Hole Economic Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas. Technically, the closest support level of GBP/USD is in the range of 1.3485–1.3500. A break below the 1.3485 level will push GBP/USD toward the next support level 1.3400–1.3415.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3334.65. Gold prices remained largely stable on Monday, with investors following U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian and European leaders, and the Fed’s annual seminar this week in Jackson Hall. In addition, this trading day should also pay attention to the initial value of the annualized total number of construction permits in the United States in July and the speech of Federal Reserve Director Bowman.

Technical aspect: The short-term technical prospects of gold are relatively neutral. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading sideways around 50, and gold prices hover around the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Gold price is 3355-The USD 3360 range (20-day moving average, 50-day moving average) forms a key pivot position. If gold prices fail to recover this level, technical selling may continue. The next $3305-3285 (100-day moving average, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of January-June upward) may become the next support area. If it falls below, it may fall below the $3200 integer mark. If gold stabilizes and stands above $3355-3360 and converts the area into support, the next resistance is at $3400 and above it is $3430.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 62.47. Oil prices rose slightly on Monday. The previous US-Russian summit in Alaska has not made any progress as investors focus on the results of the meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. In addition, this trading day should also pay attention to the initial value of the annualized total number of construction permits in the United States in July and the speech of Federal Reserve Director Bowman.

Technical: WTI crude oil is showing a bearish trend, with the short-term key pivot resistance in the range of US$63.85-64.18. If the price falls below $62.50, it will further confirm that the potential bearish pulse-type downward trend continues, and it may fall below the next medium-term support level: $61.30 (the price gap on June 2, 2025), and the range of $60.60-60.10 (this range is both the Fibonacci expansion level and the lower track of the short-term downward channel formed since the high on July 31, 2025).

Forex market trading reminder on August 19, 2025

①16:00 Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account

②20:30 Canada July CPI monthly rate

③20:30 The total number of new houses started in the United States in July

④20:30 Total number of construction permits in the United States in July

⑤The next day, the Fed Director Bauman delivered a speech

⑥The next day, the week from the United States to August 15

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