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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold prices remain stable around 3330, and talks are held unconditionally. Trump announced the launch of the preparations for the "Puze Association". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (August 19 Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,334.50 per ounce, and gold prices remained basically stable on Monday. Investors pay attention to the meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian and European leaders, as well as the annual seminar held by the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hall this week; US crude oil trading was around $62.63 per barrel, Ukraine increased its crackdown on Russia's energy infrastructure on Monday, and White House trade adviser Navarro said that India should ban the import of Russian crude oil; but early Tuesday, Ukraine President Zelensky said that he had a long discussion with US President Trump on territorial issues, and Ukraine and Russia should hold talks unconditionally.
Major U.S. stock indexes closed basically flat on Monday, after investors struggled to find directions, waiting for major retailers to release a series of corporate financial reports to find more signs of the economic situation, and also waiting for the Fed's annual seminar in Jackson Hall.
ehadb.cnpanies such as Walmart, Home Depot and Target will release financial reports this week that could show the impact of trade uncertainty and inflation expectations on U.S. consumers.
Investors are also paying close attention to the Fed's meeting held by the Fed from August 21 to 23 in Jackson Hall, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Powell is expected to speak, at which more clarifications may be made on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework.
Talks between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday failed to weigh on the marketBig impact.
Argent Capital portfolio manager Jed Ellerbroek said it was a quiet day, with investors preparing for what’s ehadb.cning, and the most important event was Powell’s speech as we expect the Fed to give its latest views on how to view this economic environment where inflation is at a fairly high level and unemployment appears to be on the rise.
Data from Friday showed that while retail sales growth roughly meets expectations, consumer sentiment has generally been hit by increased inflation concerns. On Monday, the National Housing Builders Association/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to its lowest since December 2022.
The main Wall Street index rebounded in the past two weeks, with the blue-chip Dow hitting record intraday highs last Friday, mainly due to expectations of a rate cut and a better-than-expected earnings quarter despite uncertain trade conditions.
In terms of geopolitics, Trump met with Zelensky to discuss the future of the Ukrainian war, and Trump held a summit with Russian President Putin a few days ago, but no concrete results were achieved. Trump said he would call Putin and the three leaders could meet.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower by 0.08% at 44911.82 points; the S&P 500 closed lower by 0.01% at 6449.15 points; and the Nasdaq closed higher by 0.03% at 21,629.77 points.
Investors continue to digest the Fed's expectations of a 25 basis point cut next month, although they have lowered their expectations for another rate cut this year, according to data ehadb.cnpiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
Recent data also suggest that U.S. tariffs have not affected overall consumer prices yet, but weak job markets may prompt the Fed to take a more dovish stance.
Intel fell 3.66%, after Bloomberg News reported that the Trump administration was discussing a 10% stake. Human resources management software ehadb.cnpany Dayforce rose 26%, and private equity firm Thoma Bravo is reportedly in negotiations on the acquisition.
Solar stocks SunRun and FirstSolar rose 11.35% and 9.69% respectively, after the U.S. Treasury Department announced new federal tax subsidies for solar and wind projects, which are not as strict as investors fear.
Gold prices remained basically stable on Monday, with investors following U.S. President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian and European leaders, as well as the Fed’s annual seminar this week in Jackson Hall.
Spot gold fell slightly to $3333.32 per ounce, reaching its lowest level since August 1 earlier in the session. US gold futures 12 for December delivery fell 0.1% to settle at $3,378.
Trump said that the United States will "help" Europe provide security for Ukraine as part of any agreement to end Russia's war in Ukraine. He and UkrainePresident Zelensky will meet at the White House to discuss the path to peace. According to the White House, European leaders will then meet with Trump in the White House East Hall.
Trump met with Russian President Putin last Friday, and the two leaders agreed to reach a peace agreement without implementing a ceasefire.
Marex analyst Edward Meir said: "The gold market has little reaction to Putin's meeting with Trump. I think gold prices will continue to remain in this range. The next turning point is the Federal Reserve (Conference)."
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting will be released on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve's annual meeting will be held in Jackson Hall, Wyoming from August 21 to 23. Chairman Powell will speak at this meeting.
Spot silver rose 0.1% to $38.02 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.1% to $1,334.10.
Spot palladium rose 1% to $1,122.86, falling to its lowest since July 10 earlier in the session. Oil market
Oil prices closed up 1% on Monday, with U.S. President Trump holding talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and the US-Russian summit held in Alaska last Friday had no results.
Bulunte crude oil futures settlement price was US$66.60 per barrel, an increase of 1.14%. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.99% to settle at $63.42. Trump and Zelensky met at the White House on Monday to discuss ways to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he hopes Monday's summit will eventually lead to trilateral talks with Russian President Putin, adding that he believes Putin wants the war to end. Zelensky sat aside.
Trump told Ukraine to give up hope of reclaiming annexed Crimea or joining NATO. After meeting with Putin last Friday, Trump's position was more aligned with Moscow, seeking a peace deal rather than a ceasefire in the first place.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The focus of the market is whether the date of the tripartite talks can be announced."
Ukraine on Monday stepped up its crackdown on Russia's energy infrastructure. Its drone attacked an oil pump station in Tambov area, Russia, causing disturbance to the supply of the Drugepa oil pipeline, which provided some support for oil prices.
White House trade adviser Navarro said in an opinion piece published in the Financial Times that if India wants to be regarded as a strategic partner of the United States, it needs to start acting like the strategic partner of the United States.
Navarro said: "India is the global settlement for Russian oil, converting the embargoed crude oil into high-value exports while providing Moscow with the dollar it needs."
Investors are also watching Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hall meeting this week to find clues about U.S. interest rates.
The US dollar rose on Monday, with the US President's specialTrump chaired talks aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and traders reduced their bets on September’s rate cuts ahead of a speech by Fed Chairman Powell on Friday.
Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday and then held talks with leaders from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Finland, the EU and NATO.
Trump said that the United States will "help" Europe provide security for Ukraine as part of the agreement to end the Ukraine war, and expressed hope that Monday's summit will eventually lead to trilateral talks with Russian President Putin, adding that he believes Putin wants to end the war.
Traders also looked at Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic policy workshop in Jackson Hall, Wyoming later this week to look for new signs of a possible rate cut next month. Powell previously said he was reluctant to cut interest rates because Trump's tariff policy is expected to lead to inflation rising this summer.
Traders have reduced their bets on interest rate cuts at the Fed's Sept. 16-17 meeting, after the July Producer Price Index (PPI) was released higher than expected. Traders once stepped up their bets on interest rate cuts after July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed limited transmission effects of trade tariffs.
Federal funds futures traders currently expect a 83% chance of a rate cut in September, which they briefly digested ehadb.cnpletely last week.
Powell is unlikely to lock in the monetary policy path until he sees August data. "I think it's unlikely that he'll be clear after such a long period of caution," said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRWTrading. "I do think he has a clear entry point in the labor market," said Lou Brien. "If the labor market is weak, he can act immediately without waiting for inflation, which the Fed has historically done. They are tough on inflation. They react to the labor market. The last round of employment data was weaker than expected, and the correction was weaker than expected, which means more than one report." Data released on Monday showed that the U.S. homebuilder confidence index fell unexpectedly in August, falling to its lowest level in more than two and a half years.
The euro fell 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.1661. The dollar rose 0.41% against the yen to 147.79 yen.
Citigroup said on Monday that its dollar position indicator has changed from a small short position to zero, suggesting that there is no obvious ehadb.cn long and short tendency for investors at present. The pound fell 0.35% against the dollar to $1.3504.
U.S. President Trump revealed on social media TruthSocial that he has begun to arrange a bilateral meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, and the specific location has not yet been determined. Trump says he lifts in the White HouseAt the meeting, he focused on discussing Ukraine's security guarantees with European leaders, and the relevant safeguards will be implemented in coordination with European countries and the United States. After the meeting, he had a telephone conversation with Putin and officially started the preparations for the Russian-Ukrainian leaders' meeting. According to Trump's plan, after Putin ehadb.cnpletes bilateral talks with Zelensky, a trilateral summit between the United States, Russia and Ukraine, including him. At present, US Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy Witkov are coordinating with Russia and Ukraine.
On the 18th local time, US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met at the White House. Trump said that if everything goes well, the United States, Russia and Ukraine will hold trilateral talks. At a press conference, Trump said that the possibility of sending US troops to participate in Ukraine's peacekeeping mission in the future is not ruled out. In his speech, Zelensky made it clear that Ukraine needed “all security-related safeguards”, including the military, weapons, training and intelligence. He stressed that only by relying on the ehadb.cnmitments of the United States and other major powers can we force Russia toward peace.
On the afternoon of August 18, local time, Beijing time today (August 19), US President Trump met with visiting Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House. Zelensky was asked by reporters on the scene, "What security guarantees do the United States hopes to provide to reach an agreement? Does it include the US military, intelligence and equipment?" He said, "Everything needs - first, Ukraine needs a strong army, including weapons, manpower, training and intelligence; secondly, Ukraine will discuss strategic security guarantees with major powers such as the United States, which is very critical." Trump immediately stated that many European leaders "are in the room next to them, and they are very willing to provide security guarantees for Ukraine, and the United States will also assist."
The confidence of U.S. home builders fell to its lowest level since 2022 in August, forcing builders to rely more on incentives to deal with high mortgage rates and convince buyers with less willingness. The overall market conditions index, jointly released by the National Association of Residential Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, fell 1 point to 32. The median estimate of economists surveyed is that the index will rise slightly.
It is reported that the UK Treasury is considering levied a new tax on property transactions worth more than £500,000. Senior ministers have asked officials to study how to implement a new "proportional" property tax, and the source said the first plan the officials are studying is a national property tax to replace stamp duty on their own housing. They are also discussing whether local property tax can be replaced by local property tax after the national property tax, thereby restoring the increasingly tense financial situation of local governments. National property tax will be paid by owners when selling more than £500,000 for their own homesDetermined by the property value, the tax rate is set by the central government and directly levied by the UK General Administration of Taxation and Customs. The new tax will only affect about one-fifth of property transactions, while the current stamp duty applies to about 60% of transactions and is paid by the buyer. Nationwide data shows that the average UK house price was £272,664 in July.
On August 18, local time, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sebiga said at a press conference in Kiev that Ukraine is making every effort to end the conflict with Russia this year. Sebiga pointed out that the meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky in Washington later that day was one of the decisive moments to promote peace. He stressed: "This is a decisive moment. By maximizing diplomatic resources, we have the opportunity to bring fair peace one step closer. Ukraine is doing its best to bring this conflict to an end this year." Sebiga also said that Ukraine hopes that the meeting between Zelensky and Trump on that day can further clarify the details of future security guarantees for Ukraine and promote the preparation of the trilateral summit of Ukraine, the United States and Russia. Sebiga also pointed out that the Washington meeting is expected to help clarify the agenda and time frame of the tripartite summit.
A consulting firm Wood Mackenzie emphasized in a latest report released last week that the United States' efforts to upgrade the grid for artificial intelligence-driven data centers will increase demand for power transformers this year by 30%, thereby pushing up costs and potentially delaying project construction. The agency analyst warned that supply failure to keep up with demand is causing widening market gaps in all models of transformer markets, with rising lead times and prices. Currently, the U.S. transformer production is almost ehadb.cnpletely unable to keep up with demand, which means that about 80% of transformers will rely on imports, mainly from South Korea, Mexico and other countries. This supply gap driven by the growth of AI-related data centers and the trend of all-round electrification is threatening the reliability of the US power grid and the overall data center construction layout. "The U.S. transformer market is at a critical moment, and supply restrictions may damage the U.S. energy transformation and grid reliability goals," said Ben Boucher, senior analyst for supply chain and data analysis at Wood Mackenzie. "The accelerated growth of power demand, aging infrastructure and supply chain vulnerability have caused many constraints, which are expected to continue until the 2030s."
On Monday, the A-share market ushered in a historical moment. The Shanghai ehadb.cnposite Index hit a high of 3,745 points during the session, setting a record high of nearly 10 years. At the same time, the total market value of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan. ehadb.cnpared with the index's latest highs, the breakthrough in total market value is more far-reaching. The increase in total market value also means that the influence of China's capital market continues to reach a new level, and more and more international investors are turning their attention to it."Chinese assets". Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has continued to flow into A-shares. According to Morgan Stanley statistics, global long funds injected US$2.7 billion into the Chinese stock market in July, accelerating further from US$1.2 billion in June. International capital actively allocates Chinese assets, which not only brings incremental funds, but will also continue to improve the internationalization level of A-shares, deepen the linkage between Chinese high-quality enterprises and the global market, and help enhance the resilience of China's economy.
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