US dollar approaches $98, Treasury Secretary says Powell should send a signal of a sharp cut

On September 25, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.77. On Wednesday, the US dollar index continued to rise during the day and approached the $98 mark for a time, but failed to break above it and finally closed up 0.66% to 97.86. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.152%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy interest rates, closed at 3.612%. As the dollar strengthened, spot gold fell from its historical high and fell to a low of $3717.52 intraday, falling $60 from the day high, but then recovered some of the lost ground and finally closed down 0.75% to close at $3735.89/ounce; spot silver closed down 0.3% to $43.89/ounce. Due to the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories last week, and the market's concerns about tightening supply increased, the two oils continued to rise, and once rose by more than 2% during the day. WTI crude oil started a rise in the pre-market period and once approached $65, then fell slightly, finally closing up 1.76% to $64.64 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.64% to $68.32 per barrel, hitting a new closing high in the past seven weeks.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 97.77. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated his cautious stance on further rate cuts, saying policymakers remained concerned about inflation despite weak labor markets. After this statement, the US dollar resumed its uptrend. As traders are waiting for the release of PCE price index data on Friday, if the data performs weakly, it may strengthen market expectations of "two rate cuts within the year",And curb the upward momentum of the US dollar index. Technically, the closest resistance level of the US dollar index is in the range of 98.00–98.20. A breakout through this level will push the U.S. dollar index towards resistance at 98.85–99.00.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1746. The euro/dollar fell on Wednesday as the dollar recovered after a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday, in which he was cautious about a rapid rate cut. The U.S. economic schedule this week will include initial jobless claims as of September 20, durable goods orders, gross domestic product (GDP) data and further Fed statements on Thursday. In the euro zone, Germany's GfK consumer confidence survey in October will update the status of the family. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains below the 1.1750 level, it will move towards the support level of 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3453. The GBP/USD failed to maintain a short-term bullish correction on Wednesday, falling back to around 1.3500 of the 50-day index moving average (EMA) to end a two-day winning streak. The broad market risk appetite reversed sharply during the mid-week market trading session as investors weighed the risk of the upcoming U.S. government shutdown and the rapidly approaching key U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation data. Technically, GBP/USD closed below the 1.3485–1.3500 support level and attempted to close below the 1.3450 level. If this attempt is successful, it will go to the next support level, which is within the range of 1.3335–1.3350.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold hovered around 3741.01. Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened, falling from a record high set in the previous trading day, while investors were waiting for economic data to be released later this week to find further clues about the Fed's policy path.

Technical: In the long run, the bullish tendency of gold prices has not changed, but the daily-level trend is reversing, and the closing price of gold on Wednesday is below $3,750/ounce. As market participants await new catalysts, gold prices may maintain range fluctuations in the range of $3700-3750 per ounce. If gold price falls below $3,700 per ounceThe next support level will be the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3613/oz, and will challenge $3600/oz after that. On the other hand, if gold buyers recover $3750/ounce, the next area of ​​interest will be the all-time high of $3791/ounce.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 64.57. Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday, reaching a seven-week high, with U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week, and exports from Iraq, Venezuela and Russia were hindered, and market concerns about tighter supply increased.

Technical: The price of US crude oil runs above the middle rail of the Bollinger Band (62.84) and is close to the upper rail (64.12), indicating that the current price is in a relatively strong range and there is a trend of upward testing of the upper rail pressure. The RSI value is 63.11, between 50 and 70, which means that the market currently has a certain advantage, but has not yet entered the overbought area, which means that the price still has certain upward potential. MACD indicator: DIFF (0.16) is above DEA (-0.04), and the MACD column (0.40) is a positive value, showing a golden cross and the red column continues to amplify, which shows that the short-term bull momentum is constantly increasing, and there is a possibility of further price rise. Price pattern: The price rebounded after gaining support near the previous low of 61.61, and is currently facing a downward trend line (the blue diagonal connecting the previous high of 66.02 and 64.76). If the price can effectively break through the trend line and the upper track of the Bollinger band, it is expected to open up greater room for upwards in the future; if it fails to break through, a pullback may occur.

Forex market trading reminder on September 25, 2025

14:00Germany October Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

15:30 Swiss National Bank announced interest rate resolution

18:00UK September CBI retail sales difference

20:20Federal Golsby delivered a speech

20:30Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to September 20

20:30UK second quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value

20:30UK second quarter The final value of the actual personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate

20:30 The final value of the core PCE price index in the second quarter

20:30 The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in August

21:00 The Federal Reserve Williams delivered a speech at the meeting

21:00 The Federal Reserve Schmid delivered a speech

22:00 The total number of existing home sales in the United States in August

22:00 The total number of Fed home sales in August

22:00 The Federal Reserve Director Bowman delivered a speech on regulatory issues

22:30 The week from the United States to September 19th

Federal Director Barr delivered a speech at 01:00 the next day

Federal Daly delivered a speech at 03:30 the next day

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