The US dollar fluctuates above 97, and Powell may open the door for further interest rate cuts!

On September 24, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.30. On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated above the 97 mark and finally closed down 0.08% at 97.22. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.107%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.594%. Spot gold then refreshed its historical high above $3790, but then fell back and fell below $3760 for a time, finally closing up 0.46%, closing at $3764.02/ounce; spot silver rose first and then fell, and gave up all the intraday gains during the US session, and finally closed down 0.07%, at $44.02/ounce. International crude oil rebounded slightly as negotiations on resuming oil exports in Iraq's Kurdish region encountered obstacles, alleviating some investors' concerns about global oversupply. WTI crude oil started to rise during the European session and returned to above $63, rising more than 2% in the day and finally closed up 2.05% at $63.53/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.81% at $67.22/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 97.30. Powell's statement today may consolidate this expectation and may break it. If he sends a signal of "staying patient" or reiterates concerns about inflation, the US dollar index may climb to the 98 mark; but if he expresses his dovishness (especially when referring to labor market risks), he may put pressure on the US dollar index to fall back to the fulcrum of 97.021. Before this, the US dollar index will most likely be mainly range oscillating. Technically, if the US dollar index closes at the latest supportBelow 97.10–97.30, it will go to the next support level, which is in the 96.40–96.55 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1807. EUR/USD remained firm above the 1.1800 level on Tuesday, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remained neutral, with data on business activity in Europe and the United States suggesting that the two major economies are slowing. Technically, falling below the 50 moving average of 1.1778 will push the EUR/USD to the next support level 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3515. The GBP/USD continued its second day with a slight gain, rebounding from a chaotic technical rebound at the 1.3500-day index moving average (EMA) near 50. The UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was significantly lower than expected, but the pound (GBP) still rose after the dollar weakened across the board. Technically, if GBP/USD closes above 1.3530, it will move towards the 50 moving average of 1.3565. Successfully testing the 50 moving average will open the road for the test resistance level 1.3585–1.3600.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

In the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3763.33. Gold's historic surge this time is a perfect storm woven by geopolitical demand for safe haven and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts. It not only shows the resilience of independent strengthening when traditional related assets such as the US dollar remain stable, but also becomes an ideal destination for capital rotation when concerns about high valuations in the stock market emerge. Although the road ahead is still driven by economic data and policy signals, and there may be technical adjustments, the shining moment of gold has not yet ended in the context of global uncertainty and monetary policy turning to looseness.

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, but in the short term, buyers seem unwilling to push the spot gold price to $3,800 per ounce. If the daily closing price of gold is below $3,760/ounce, it will pave the way for the challenge of $3,750/ounce and then fall to $3,700/ounce. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bulls still dominate, but they are losing some momentum. Conversely, if buyers push gold above $3775 per ounce, it will be a test record high of 379Clear the way for $1/ounce. Once the latter is broken, the next target of gold is $3,800 per ounce.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 63.57. International oil prices closed up more than $1 per barrel after a previous agreement to resume oil exports in Iraq's Kurdish region stagnated, alleviating investors' concerns about global oversupply.

Technical: If WTI crude oil climbs above the 50 moving average of $64.52, it will move towards the resistance level of $66.00 to $66.50.

Forex market trading reminder on September 24, 2025

09:30 Australia's August weighted CPI annual rate

16:00 Germany's September IFO business prosperity index

16:00 Switzerland's September ZEW Investor Confidence Index

22:00 Total U.S. New Home Sales in August

22:30 U.S. to September 19 EIA crude oil inventories

2 2:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to September 19

22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the week from the United States to September 19

The next day, the Federal Reserve Daly delivered a speech

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