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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
China's foreign exchange reserve scale hit a new high in the past 10 years: Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was US$332.22 billion, again standing at the 3.3 trillion US dollar mark after the end of June, setting a new high in the past 10 years. China's economic operation is stable and progressing, providing support for the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves and also helping stabilize the RMB exchange rate.
Global economic growth expectations have been raised: The latest report of the OECD pointed out that global economic growth expectations will be raised to 3.2% in 2025 (the previous value is 2.9%) and maintained at 2.9% in 2026. The U.S. growth forecast for 2025 was slightly raised to 1.8% (previously 1.6%), ehadb.cnpared with 1.5% in 2026. The increase in global economic growth expectations will help increase market risk preferences and may provide certain support for risky currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
The Bank of Sweden cut interest rates: The Bank of Sweden announced a 25 basis point cut to 1.75%, the third rate cut this year. This may lead to a depreciation of the Swedish Krone, and relatively speaking, other currencies such as the euro and the US dollar may strengthen.
U.S. PMI data hit a three-month low: the initial S&P global manufacturing PMI in September was 52, the initial PMI in the service industry was 53.9, and the initial PMI was 53.6, both lower than expected and hit a three-month low. A weakening of US economic data may weaken the US dollar's trend and be beneficial to other currencies.
UK PMI data declined: The initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the UK slowed to 46.2 in September, hitting a five-month low; the initial value of the service industry PMI fell to 51.9 beyond expectations, ehadb.cnprehensive PThe initial value of MI fell to a four-month low of 51. Poor economic data in the UK may cause the pound to weaken.
India's manufacturing PMI is affected by tariffs: India's initial manufacturing PMI value fell to 58.5 in September. Affected by the US's 50% tariff on India, the growth rate of new export orders was the slowest in six months. This could put some pressure on the Indian rupee trend.
Feder officials have differences over interest rate cuts: Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the current interest rate policy is "still at a moderately restrictive level" and reserves room for further interest rate cuts, but stressed that the Fed faces "two-way risks." In addition, Fed hawks warned that aggressive rate cuts should not be taken if the economy does not weaken further. The uncertainty in the market about the Fed's future interest rate cut path has increased, which may lead to fluctuations in the US dollar and will also affect the performance of other currencies.
The yen faces downward pressure: In the long run, driven by widening interest rate spreads between Japan and the United States and the continued flow of funds out of Japan, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy may continue to support the rise of the US dollar against the yen. Senior analysts at Danske Bank believe that the rise of the US dollar against the Japanese yen has room for further expansion, and in the medium and long term, it will rise to around 114.00, which means that the yen is facing certain downward pressure.
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