The US dollar index continues to rebound, and the risk of the US government shutdown has risen again!

On September 22, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.74. Last Friday, the US dollar index continued its rebound momentum and once rose to a day high of 97.81 before the US session, and finally closed up 0.33%, and the daily line recorded three consecutive increases to 97.67. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.133%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.584%. Spot gold rose with the US dollar and accelerated its rise before the US session, with a sharp rise of $50 at a low of $1.12%, closing at $3,685.47/ounce, the fifth consecutive week of closing; spot silver finally closed up 2.94%, at $43.03/ounce. International crude oil continued to decline as market concerns over large supply and demand declines exceeded expectations that the Fed's first rate cut this year would stimulate consumption. WTI crude oil continued to fall during the day, finally closing down 1.54% to $62.29 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.47% to $66.08 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 97.74. Everyone's eyes were focused on Friday's Fed's preferred inflation indicator - the August personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index - and the final data of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September. Technically, the US dollar index closed above the previous resistance level 97.10–97.30 and tried to close above the 97.50 level. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level, which is in the 98.00–98.20 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1734. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all three key interest rates unchanged, continuing its meeting-by-data-dependent policy. Officials added that inflation is currently basically in line with the 2% medium-term target. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains below 1.1750, it will move towards support level 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3467. Pound is supported by a decrease in the likelihood of an immediate rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). The Bank of England will announce its decision later today, with the expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged due to concerns about inflation stickiness. Technically, the successful testing of the 1.3485–1.3500 support level will push the GBP/USD toward the next support level 1.3335–1.3350.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3690.55. The global gold market ushered in another milestone last week. Looking ahead to this week, the market will usher in a series of key data, including the US, Japan and Europe September PMI on Tuesday, the US second-quarter GDP final value and durable goods orders on Thursday, the US PCE inflation report on Friday, and the speeches of several Fed officials, especially the views of new Fed member Miran. These data will directly affect the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October, and the current market price is 91.9%. If PCE shows inflation cooling and employment data are weak, gold prices are expected to resume their rise; on the contrary, if the data is strong, the pressure for the pullback will increase.

Technical: Technically, the daily relative strength index (RSI) has approached 72 and is in the overbought range, which may trigger a technical pullback in the short term. However, the overall bullish pattern is still stable. The direct resistance above was at the all-time high of $3,707 set on September 17. Once the breakout is made, the gold price is expected to point to the Fibonacci expansion target: $3912, $4127, followed by $4437. If the seller re-emphasizes efforts, the initial support below is at the 55-day moving average ($3425) and the 100-day moving average ($3380), further supporting at the weekly low of $3311 on August 20 and the trough of $3268 on July 30. From a technical perspective, as long as the gold price remains at the critical 200-day moving average of 314Above $7, the overall bullish trend will not change.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 62.45. Oil prices fell last Friday as concerns about large supply and demand declines surpassed expectations that the Fed's first rate cut this year would spark more consumption.

Technical: Technically, with the weak demand signal and the continued growth of supply, the short-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. If oil prices continue to fall below $63.10. A bearish view will be confirmed, with the targets below being US$62.71, US$62.22 and US$61.45 respectively. Unless demand indicators improve or OPEC+ adjusts its stance, sellers may continue to dominate short-term trading, and the rebound will face resistance from the 10-day moving average/38.2% Fibonacci level (approximately $63.40-$63.50) and 50-day moving average ($63.98).

Forex market trading reminder on September 22, 2025

①09:00 China to September 22, one-year loan market quotation rate

②09:00 RBA Chairman Brock gave a testimony statement

③15:00 State ehadb.cnrmation Office held a press conference

④21:45 Fed Williams delivered a speech

⑤22:00 Eurozone September Consumer Confidence Index

⑥22:00 Fed Mousalem delivered a speech

⑦ The next day 00:00 Fed Hamak made a speech on the US economy

⑧The next day, the Fed Barkin made a speech on the economic situation

⑨The next day, the Bank of England Governor Bailey made a speech

⑩The next day, the New York crude oil October futures ehadb.cnpleted the final on-site trading

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