The United States has made a big mistake in the data on unemployment claims! The US dollar index rose above 97

On September 19, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.39. On Thursday, the number of initial unemployment claims released by the United States hit its biggest drop in nearly four years, reversing the sharp increase in the previous week (Note: Hours after the data was released, it was reported that North Carolina's renewal data was wrongly underestimated by more than 19,000 people, and a spokesman for the Department of Labor said it was still investigating the matter). The US dollar index recovered the 97 mark and finally closed up 0.35% to 97.36. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1080%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.5740%. Affected by negative initial request data, spot gold plunged more than $40 at most, and finally closed down 0.41%, closing at $3,643.75/ounce; spot silver rebounded after the decline, almost recovering lost ground, and finally closed up 0.35%, at $41.79/ounce. International crude oil continued its decline on Wednesday amid concerns oversupply and weak fuel demand in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. WTI crude oil eventually closed down 1.03% at $63.30 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.6% at $67.51 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 97.39. The U.S. dollar index rose sharply on Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury yields rekindled demand for the U.S. dollar. The move reflects that although the Fed just announced a rate cut the day before, economic data eased market concerns about weak labor markets and the overall U.S. fixed income market is repricing. Technically, the US dollar indexThe number is trying to close above resistance level 97.10–97.25. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1784 due to good U.S. economic data and hawkish views of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Across the Atlantic, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers de Kindus, Sturnaras and Escreva stressed policy flexibility and neutrality. They believe that the current interest rates are appropriate and inflation risks are balanced, but growth risks are skewed downward. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes below 1.1760 of the 50 moving average, it will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovers around 1.3546. The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged with a 7-2 vote, and the general uneasiness in the market kept the US dollar (USD) strong in various markets. Technically, if GBP/USD closes below the 1.3550 level, it will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 1.3485–1.3500.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold hovered around 3642.03. Gold prices fell on Thursday in profit-taking, as the market assessed the Fed's position to cut further interest rates. The gold price hit a record high in the previous trading day. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,643.40 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery closed down 1.1% to $3,678.30. The previous trading day was volatile, with spot prices briefly hitting a record high of $3,707.40 before falling back from that level.

Technical: As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 14th finally fell sharply from the extreme overbought zone, gold buyers seem to have another opportunity to continue to rise. RSI has dropped from 80 to 72. If buying on dips appears and builds strength, gold prices may retest the record high of $3,708 per ounce. If the daily closing price of gold is above this level, the door will open to the $3,750/ounce area. On the other hand, however, if the correction decline continues, gold prices may challenge this week's low of $3,627 per ounce. likeGold fell further and will test the $3,600/ounce integer mark; once it falls below this level, last week's low of $3,578/ounce will be the seller's next target.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 63.19. WTI fell due to concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Still, a sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit the downside of WTI.

Technical: Before WTI can achieve a continuous breakthrough of the 50-day moving average, the market still faces the risk of downward breakthrough. If the 20-day moving average support level falls, bearish risks will intensify and the price may accelerate to $60.77. Continued concerns about weak U.S. fuel demand and uncertainty about the effectiveness of Fed policy have kept traders defensive. The short-term outlook is biased towards bearishness, and the key resistance level suppresses bullish momentum.

Forex market trading reminder on September 19, 2025

To be determined. The Bank of Japan announced its interest rate resolution

14:00German August PPI monthly rate

14:00UK August seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate

14:30Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference

20:30Canada July retail sales Monthly rate

The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to September 19

The next day, 02:30, the Federal Reserve Daly attended the fireside conversation

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