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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM official website]: The UK increased its holdings of US bonds in July, and the market evaluated the Fed's position to further cut interest rates, and gold prices continued to fall at high levels." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (September 19, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,640/ounce, gold prices fell on Thursday in profit-taking, and the market evaluated the Fed's position to further cut interest rates; US crude oil trading was around $63.22/barrel, oil prices fell on Thursday, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, but as both labor supply and demand decreased, the employment market has become softer, and traders are still worried about the outlook for the US economy.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference on monetary policy, and OPEC held a preliminary discussion on the procedures for updating the production capacity estimation of member countries.
Major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs on Thursday, with the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point interest rate cut a day ago. Chip maker Intel rose sharply as Nvidia announced it would acquire stakes in the ehadb.cnpany.
Intel's share price soared 22.8%, the largest single-day increase since October 1987. Nvidia said it would invest $5 billion in the troubled U.S. chip maker. Intermediate AMD fell 0.8%.
Nvidia rose 3.5%, the chip sector strengthened overall, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.6%, and technology stocks were also boosted, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 technology sectors rising 0.94% and 1.36% respectively. Seven out of 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose.
Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 index closed at 2466 points, the first time since November last year. analyzeSmall businesses generally perform better in low interest rates, teachers noted.
Federal Chairman Powell stressed Wednesday that weak job markets are the current policy focus and hinted that future policy meetings may continue to cut interest rates. "We are looking for factors that support economic growth and a reasonable explanation for high valuations, and the prospect of a rate cut provides that support," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRAResearch. "The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27% to 46142.42 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.48% to 6631.96 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.94% to 22470.73 points. The sectors with the largest declines in the S&P 500 are the consumer staples and consumer staples sectors.
The latest data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, but the overall labor market has tended to be weaker, and both labor supply and demand have weakened.
This rate cut is expected to further drive Wall Street's recent rise, boosted by expectations of loose monetary policy and recovery of AI-related stock trading. Investors expect another rate cut by about 44.2 basis points by the end of 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
Gold prices fell on Thursday in profit-taking, and the market evaluated the Fed's position to further cut interest rates. The gold price hit a record high in the previous trading day. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,643.40 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery closed down 1.1% to $3,678.30. The previous trading day was volatile, with spot prices briefly hitting a record high of $3,707.40 before falling from that level.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, and on Wednesday, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since December and opened the door to further easing, but also issued warnings about stubborn inflation, making the pace of future policy adjustments full of uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell described the policy move as a response to a weak labor market risk management rate cut, but stressed that the Fed is not in a hurry to start easing.
Politics vice president and senior metals strategist at ZanerMetals said: "Powell's remarks about interest rate cuts being a risk management measure have caused some confusion, and this uncertainty has prompted the market to take profits. "However, I do think that the long-term bullish trend of gold remains, and the pullback after yesterday's record high is a technical correction... Every time gold hits a new high, it further enhances the credibility of its impact on the $4,000 target."
Gold tends to perform well in low interest rates and uncertain times, and has risen nearly 39% so far this year. Meanwhile, data showed that Switzerland's gold exports to China soared by 254% in August ehadb.cnpared with July.
Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.3% to $41.78 per ounce;Platinum rose 1.6% to $1,384.95;palladium rose 0.5% to $1,160.25. Oil market
Oil prices fell on Thursday and closed down, with traders still worried about the outlook for the U.S. economy, a day after the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.8% to settle at $67.44. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.8% to settle at $63.57.
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday and suggested it would steadily reduce borrowing costs for the rest of the year in response to signs of weak job markets.
Onyx Capital Group managing director Jorge Montepeque said, "They are doing this now, obviously because the economy is slowing down and the Fed is trying to resume growth."
The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, reversing the sharp rise in the previous week, but the job market has softened as both labor supply and demand have decreased.
The continued oversupply and weak fuel demand in the United States are also under pressure.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, ehadb.cn imports hit a record low, and exports jumped to their highest levels in the past two years, according to data released by the U.S. Energy ehadb.cnrmation Administration (EIA). However, distillate stocks rose by 4 million barrels, and market expectations increased by 1 million barrels, which raised concerns about U.S. demand and put pressure on oil prices.
Russian Ministry of Finance announced a new measure aimed at protecting national budgets from fluctuations in oil prices and Western sanctions on its energy exports. Russia is the world's second largest crude oil producer after the United States in 2024.
Ukraine said its drones attacked a large oil processing and petrochemical ehadb.cnplex in Russia and an oil refinery as part of its escalation of its actions to destroy the Moscow oil and gas industry.
Kuwait Minister Tariq Al-Roumi expects oil demand to increase after the U.S. rate cut, especially in the Asian market.
The U.S. dollar rose against most major currencies on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve announced an expected rate cut, but suggested there is no rush to quickly reduce borrowing costs in the ehadb.cning months. Data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, reversing the surge in the previous week.
The widespread strength of the dollar puts pressure on the pound, erasing the gains recorded earlier by the Bank of England after it kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of Treasury bond sales.
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday. Chairman Powell characterized the policy action as a "risk-managed interest rate cut" in the weak labor market, but said the Fed did not need to rush to relax policies.
Powell's statement failed to meet the "clear dovish position that the market originally expected," said Eric Theoret, a foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Canada. He said Thursday's optimisticThe heavy selling pressure encountered by the US dollar at the beginning of the week is enough to drive the US dollar to rebound.
"I think the market balance was originally ehadb.cnpletely inclined to one side, so it takes great momentum to get the dollar down further from the current level," Theoret added. Analysts have differences on the interpretation of the Fed's signal.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe many signs that Wednesday's rate cut will be the beginning of multiple actions, while ANZ analysts say the Fed's chairman's remarks are "not dovish at all."
After Wednesday's interest rate resolution was announced, the US dollar index fell to 96.224, a new low since February 2022, but rebounded 0.4% to 97.347 on Thursday.
The pound initially rose slightly due to the Bank of England's resolution, but turned to a 0.6% drop to $1.35,515 intraday, after a brief jump to its highest since July 2 by $1.3726.
Bank of England policymakers decided to slow down the annual share reduction of government bonds purchased between 2009 and 2021 from £100 billion to £70 billion, basically in line with the median survey estimate of £67.5 billion.
Benjamin Ford, a researcher at MacroHive institution MacroHive, said: "We believe the market is too pessimistic about the pound's position."
The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to 1.17893, and its knee-bounce reaction to the Fed's statement on Wednesday hit a high of 1.19185 since June 2021.
Norwegian kroner fell 0.5% against the US dollar. The Norwegian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%, the second rate cut in three months. The central bank has hinted that interest rates may be cut further.
In other currencies, the US dollar rose 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 147.88 yen. Investors are closely watching the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decisions on Friday.
The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged, but traders expect to raise interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of next March, of which the probability of implementation within this year is about 50%.
Market Focus: Japan's Liberal Democratic Party will vote for a new president on October 4 to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who proposed to resign due to a disastrous defeat in the Senate election.
New Zealand's GDP fell 0.9% month-on-month, a drop of 0.3% forecast by analysts and the Fed, according to data released on Thursday. This put pressure on the New Zealand dollar, down 1.4% as traders escalated bets on the Fed's easing policy.
Strikes and demonstrations were held in many places in France on the 18th. According to statistics from French government departments, more than 500,000 people participated in the strike in France, including about 55,000 in the capital Paris. This is another large-scale protest in France recently broke out over opposing the government's fiscal austerity plan. On that day, France's transportation, education, electricity, medicine and other industries worked in FranceThe activists responded to the union’s call to hold a strike to varying degrees, calling for a “more just” fiscal plan. Street demonstrations in cities such as Paris, Lyon, Rennes are also accompanied by violence and sabotage. According to the French Ministry of the Interior, more than 300 people were arrested in France. French Prime Minister Le Cornie posted on social media that night that he would continue to negotiate with all sectors of society on the demands of French trade unions and protesters. He also condemned the violence in the demonstrations.
On Thursday local time, the majority Republican Party used the "nuclear option" to make major rules amendments, and the US Senate confirmed 48 nominees for US President Trump in a single vote. This partisan vote of 51 to 47 confirmed a series of deputy cabinet positions and ambassador candidates for President Trump. These include: former Republican Rep. Brandon Williams, who served as deputy secretary of nuclear safety; former Fox News host Kimberly Guilfoyle, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Greece; and Callista Gingrich, the wife of former House Speaker, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
On the 18th local time, British Prime Minister Stamer and visiting US President Trump held a joint press conference at the British Prime Minister's rural residence Chex Villa. Speaking about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Trump said that he originally thought that the Ukraine-Russia issue might be the easiest issue to solve, but in fact it is very ehadb.cnplicated and they will wait and see the results of Ukraine's negotiations. Starmer said the two sides discussed how to increase defense support for Ukraine during the talks.
Data from the US Treasury Department showed that China held US Treasury bonds in July were US$731 billion and US$756 billion in June. Japan held US Treasury bonds in July at $1.151 trillion, ehadb.cnpared with $1.148 trillion in June. The UK held US Treasury bonds in July at $899 billion, ehadb.cnpared with US$858 billion in June.
Due to technical errors, in the weekly unemployment benefits application report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the application data in North Carolina was wrongly underestimated by more than 19,000 people. The report shows that North Carolina's renewed unemployment benefits were only 205 in the week ending September 6, the lowest level on record in the state, which is usually close to 20,000. The North Carolina Department of ehadb.cnmerce, which collects and transmits data to Washington, said the figure was caused by "technical errors" and the correct number should be 19,355 people. A spokesman for the Labor Department said they are still investigating the matter. "So, when the data is corrected, we expect the number of renewed unemployment benefits nationwide to increase," said JPMorgan economist Abill Reinhardt.About 20,000 people were added. This will still keep unemployment claims applicants at the level of previous weeks. ”
On the evening of September 18 local time, Yemen's Houthi military spokesman Yehaiya Sareya delivered a speech saying that the Houthi armed forces used the "Palestine 2" hypersonic ballistic missile to attack Tel Aviv, Israel, and the missile hit a military target. The Houthi armed forces also attacked several targets in Eilat, southern Israel through three drones, and a drone attacked one of Berkheba's targets.
U.S. President Trump said when meeting with British Prime Minister Stamer at the British Prime Minister's rural residence at Chex Villa on the 18th that he opposed the British recognition of Pakistan The plan of the Lestan State. Trump said that he had differences with Stamer on the issue of Gaza, which is one of the "few differences" of this meeting. Stamer said that Britain and the United States agreed to support Gaza to achieve peace and formulate a roadmap, while stressing the need to provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza as soon as possible.
On the 18th local time, Basem Naim, a senior official of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), said in a live interview with Qatar Arab TV that the organization agreed with Qatar's position, that is, in view of Israel's continuous attacks, especially Israel's continuous escalation of its military operations against Gaza City, Hamas is unlikely to negotiate at present.
On the 18th, the signing ceremony of the 22nd China-ASEAN Expo was held in Nanning, Guangxi. 155 projects were signed on site, including 94 industrial projects, 44 "artificial intelligence +" empowering thousands of industries, and 17 international economic and trade projects. The signing ceremony of this year's ASEAN Expo focuses on the theme of "AI plays the protagonist and enterprises as the main body", focusing on building an international cooperation highland for artificial intelligence and building a cross-regional cross-border industrial chain and supply chain, and striving to promoteSigned a number of landmark cooperation projects.
In the field of biomedicine, some domestic innovative drugs have shown performance ehadb.cnparable to international pharmaceutical ehadb.cnpanies' star drugs in terms of efficacy. In recent years, more and more international pharmaceutical ehadb.cnpanies have spent huge amounts of money to cooperate with Chinese pharmaceutical ehadb.cnpanies. At the beginning of this year, China's artificial intelligence model DeepSeek gained world attention with its extremely low development costs and powerful performance. In fact, in the field of biotechnology, China is also ushering in a similar "DeepSeek moment". Chinese pharmaceutical ehadb.cnpanies are entering the era of innovative drugs from the past generic drugs to the era of innovative drugs, and attracting a lot of international cooperation. The main form of cooperation is authorized cooperation: the foreign party obtains the right to develop, produce and ehadb.cnmercialize Chinese medicines or related technologies in markets outside China.
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