Wonderful introduction:
Let your sorrows be full of worries, and you can't sleep, and you can't sleep. The full moon hangs high, scattered all over the ground. I think that the bright moon will be ruthless, and the wind and frost will fade away for thousands of years, and the passion will fade away easily. If there is love, it should have grown old with the wind. Knowing that the moon is ruthless, why do you repeatedly express your love to the bright moon?
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM official website]: It is difficult to change the decline after the return of the zero axis, and the key position is in a hurry." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Last Friday, the US dollar index continued to fall during the day, falling below the 98 US dollar mark during the session. As of now, the US dollar is priced at 97.81.
Trump: During the meeting, Putin did not reach an agreement on "probably the most important aspect", but there is a high possibility of reaching an agreement. Give this meeting 10 points and it is expected to meet Putin again soon. Putin said the talks were constructive and we had a very good direct connection with Trump. All root causes must be eliminated and all Russian concerns must be considered. The next meeting with Trump may be in Moscow.
Trump said that he has made significant progress on the Russian issue and suggested that Zelensky reach an agreement to temporarily withdraw the threat to Russia; the US special envoy said Putin has agreed that Ukraine has obtained security guarantees of "Article 5 of NATO"; Russia: Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donetsk, and is willing to freeze the front-line war in southern Khlsong Prefecture and Zaporoze Prefecture, and will not launch a new offensive; there has been no discussion on the issue of holding a trilateral meeting between Russia, the United States and Ukraine.
Ukraine: Zelensky will meet with Trump in Washington on Monday; European countries pointed out that Russia cannot exercise veto power against Ukraine's accession to the EU or NATO, and will continue to strengthen sanctions; European leaders will go to Washington to attend the "Tze Talks" on Monday.
Trump: Steel and chip tariffs will be determined in the next two weeks, and semiconductor tariffs may be as high as 300%; in addition, TrumpThe government has expanded the scope of imposing a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products on the list.
Federal Daly: Waiting for more data, maybe lower interest rates, maybe more interest rates. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goulsby: The latest PPI and CPI inflation data are disturbing; if there are signs in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market cuts its bet on interest rate cuts, and is still expected to cut interest rates in September, and will cut interest rates again in 2025.
U.S. officials said some National Guard personnel deployed to Washington, D.C. will begin carrying guns in the city.
The Fed's interest rate cut this year is skeptical, noting that Powell said in July that he will be satisfied with low employment growth as long as the unemployment rate remains within a narrow range. Now it seems that this idea is becoming a reality, and Bank of America says Powell's speech at Jackson Hall will give him a chance to "do what he says."
"If Powell wants to object to the September rate cut, he can say that policy stance is still appropriate given the current data. But if the August non-farm employment report is very weak, this wording will allow him to retain the option to cut interest rates," Bank of America said in a note. "Of course, he may also say that it is appropriate to turn to a less restrictive policy stance, thus conveying a signal of interest rate cuts."
Yesterday, the strong US PPI data triggered a jump in US Treasury yields, pushing the US and Japan from intraday lows to a high of 147.96. But then, with the release of Japan's latest GDP report, the yen strengthened across the board, and the pair fell back to around 147.00 again.
This report shows that Japan's economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, with an annualized growth rate of 1.0%. In addition, the data on the economic contraction of 0.2% in the first quarter was also revised to a growth of 0.6%. This means that the Japanese economy has maintained positive growth for five consecutive quarters. Judging from the expenditure details, despite the interference of tariffs, Japan's exports (2.0%) were still stronger than imports (0.6%), making ehadb.cn trade contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter. The growth in exports may partly reflect the early release of demand before the U.S.-Japan trade agreement was reached, but it also dispels market concerns about the negative impact of trade interference.
Overall, this report should strengthen the Bank of Japan's confidence that the Japanese economy has performed better than expected in the face of negative external shocks this year. The Bank of Japan has acknowledged that the conclusion of the U.S.-Japan trade deal eases uncertainty over the economic outlook, which will further alleviate the downside risks of growth.
Although the Bank of Japan will continue to pay close attention to the futureThe economic performance of the month, but we think it is more likely to resume interest rate hikes this year, possibly as early as October. The Japanese interest rate market has adjusted the probability of the Bank of Japan hike in October to nearly 50:50, and is expected to raise interest rates by about 17 basis points by the end of this year. If the Fed cuts interest rates and the Bank of Japan raises interest rates after the fall, the widening of the disagreement between Japan and the United States will put greater downward pressure on the United States and Japan.
The economic data calendar next week is relatively light, and the main focus of the market will be on the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole seminar. In addition, the minutes of the Federal Open Market ehadb.cnmittee (FOMC) meeting in July, housing data and the latest round of unemployment benefits will be released.
Powell's "Tone Setting" Opportunity: Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will kick off on Thursday, but the core focus of the market will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday night. This provides Powell with the opportunity to shape market expectations before the FOMC meeting in September, and he may also use it to announce the results of the Fed's framework review.
The interest rate cut signal may appear? Given the weaker employment data released after the July meeting, we think Powell's wording may appear less hawkish than it was at the July press conference. Nevertheless, there is still a series of key data to be released before mid-September, so it may be too early to expect Powell to give a clear signal to cut interest rates.
The Fed's policy framework may be adjusted: We expect this framework review will lead to the Fed's abandonment of the average inflation target system introduced five years ago. Since interest rate lower limits are no longer an urgent issue, the Fed will likely adjust its Long-term Target and Monetary Policy Strategy Statement, removing the wording of deliberately overshooting after inflation falls below targets, and re-seeking to "reduce" deviations from maximum employment levels rather than just "make up for shortcomings."
The US retail sales data in July were stronger than expected. Not only did the total sales increase by 0.5% for the month, but the June data was also raised, indicating that the consumer base is slightly solid in entering the third quarter. Nevertheless, we remain cautious about the trend of consumer spending in the second half of the year, given the slowing job market and concerns about rising prices.
Although the retail sales data in July are glamorous, there are still some factors that weaken its "halo". A large portion of the month's growth in consumption could be attributed to car sales, with the category up 1.6%. If car sales are excluded, retail sales growth has dropped to a more modest 0.3%.
In addition, since retail sales data are nominal values (not adjusted for inflation), rising prices also play an important role. Overall ehadb.cnmodity prices remained flat in August, but high-priced imported goods (such as home goods and entertainment goods) pushed up the prices of core ehadb.cnmodity,This makes some retailers' sales look stronger than actual potential sales.
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