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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the changing stage of the foreign exchange market, various news is like a baton, always swaying the trend of currency. On August 15, 2025, many factors intertwined, forming a ehadb.cnplex market situation. The following is a sorting out the positive and negative news that affected the foreign exchange market that day.
Recently, the performance of US economic data has become a key factor affecting the trend of the US dollar. The US PPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in July, which far exceeded the expected 0.2%, indicating a rebound in inflation pressure. The rise in inflation data usually raises market expectations of the Fed rate hike, thus creating potential support for the US dollar. However, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell to 224,000, lower than the expected 235,000. Although this data shows that the labor market is still strong, it also triggers market concerns about the economic overheating, making the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's 25 basis points cut in September still as high as 99%. The existence of interest rate cut expectations has limited the upward space of the US dollar to a certain extent, resulting in the US dollar index showing a volatile pattern on the same day.
In the euro zone, GDP in the second quarter remained unchanged month-on-month, lower than expected 0.1%, and the manufacturing PMI was even below the boom and bust line for six consecutive months, only 48.2. The weak economic data cast a shadow on the eurozone's economic outlook, and market expectations for the ECB to further relax monetary policy have heated up, which undoubtedly put downward pressure on the euro-dollar exchange rate.
The leaders of the United States and Russia met in Alaska on August 15, and this incident became the focus of global attention. On the eve of the meeting, market trading sentiment became extremely cautious. US President Trump previously said that the meeting may be held soon after the meeting. This relatively eased statement has eased the concerns of geopolitical tensions about interference with crude oil supply to a certain extent, and thus affects the currency trend closely related to crude oil prices. If the United States and Russia reach a consensus on key issues such as energy exports and regional situations, the risk appetite in the global market may increase, and funds will flow out of safe-haven assets to risky assets, which may be beneficial to some high-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar; on the contrary, if the meeting breaks down, geopolitical tensions escalate again, the market risk aversion sentiment will heat up sharply, and traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are expected to be supported, while risky currencies will be sold.
From the policy dynamics of global central banks, Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in July, lower than the expected 3.7%. This data has increased the possibility that the market expects the RBA to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The stability of interest rate expectations has a certain stabilization effect on the Australian dollar exchange rate, but at the same time, the decline in iron ore prices (US$62.5/ton, down 4.2% on the week) is due to Australia, as the main exporter of iron ore, posed downward pressure on the Australian dollar.
Japan, the trade deficit in June widened to 1.2 trillion yen, and the core CPI in July rose 2.8% year-on-year, lower than expected 3.0%. The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy, and the demand for auctions of 10-year Japanese bonds hit the lowest level since 2020. This series of factors have led to weakening the safe-haven attributes of the yen, and the yen continued to be weak against other major currencies.
At home, Li Bin, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, previously stated that in 2025, it will better coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, and build a "more convenient, more open and safer" foreign exchange management system and mechanism. In the future, we will continue to promote the policy of facilitating foreign exchange receipts and expenditures of high-quality enterprises, and promote it to regions and small and medium-sized banks that have benefited from the past, so as to help more high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises enjoy the convenience of reducing documents and simplifying processes; in ehadb.cnbination with the characteristics of new trade formats such as e-commerce platforms and ehadb.cnprehensive foreign trade service enterprises, we will support the return of export payments, simplify foreign exchange payment procedures, and improve the level of settlement facilitation; respond to the demands of some contracting engineering ehadb.cnpanies, support the unified management and independent allocation of cross-border and cross-regional engineering project funds, and improve the efficiency of fund management. If these policies can be implemented smoothly, they will have a positive impact on the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the balance of cross-border capital flows. In the long run, it will help enhance the RMB's position and attractiveness in the international foreign exchange market.
ehadb.cnprehensive various news on the day, the long and short factors in the foreign exchange market are fiercely fighting. The dollar fluctuates due to the differentiation of economic data and the uncertainty of Fed policy expectations; the euro is dragged down by the weak euro zone economy, and the downward pressure is high; the pound has a mixed prospect of the UK economic data; the yen continues to be weak, and ehadb.cnmodity currencies such as the Australian dollar are also facing economic data and ehadb.cnmodity pricesThe dual influence of the quart.
For investors, in the current ehadb.cnplex and changeable market environment, they need to pay close attention to further changes in macroeconomic data, the development of geopolitical situations, and the adjustment of policies of central banks in various countries. Every new news may become a turning point in the market trend. Only by grasping this ehadb.cnrmation in a timely manner and adjusting investment strategies flexibly can we ride the wind and waves in the waves of the foreign exchange market, reduce risks and obtain returns. In the future, the foreign exchange market will still face many challenges and uncertainties. Investors need to be cautious and manage risks well to deal with possible market fluctuations at any time.
The above content is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influence the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully ehadb.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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