Wonderful introduction:
Let your sorrows be full of worries, and you can't sleep, and you can't sleep. The full moon hangs high, scattered all over the ground. I think that the bright moon will be ruthless, and the wind and frost will fade away for thousands of years, and the passion will fade away easily. If there is love, it should have grown old with the wind. Knowing that the moon is ruthless, why do you repeatedly express your love to the bright moon?
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the context of ehadb.cnplex and changing global economic and geopolitical situations, the foreign exchange market is always impacted and affected by various news. On August 13, 2025, many positive and negative news were intertwined, bringing many considerations to investors' trading decisions.
The joint statement of Sino-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks pointed out that the implementation of 24% tariffs will be suspended for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. This positive move has greatly eased trade tensions between the two major economies around the world and boosted investors' confidence in the global trade prospects. The expectation of improved trade environment has increased the market risk appetite, and funds are more inclined to flow into risky assets, which in turn has a positive support for currency closely related to trade in the foreign exchange market, such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. Because active trade will drive the growth of import and export business of relevant countries and increase the demand and liquidity of their currencies.
Judging from the currency exchange rate performance on that day, Botswana Pula rose 0.9101% against the Korean won and 0.7312% against the Swiss franc; the Canadian dollar rose 0.1834% against Haitian Goode, 0.2410% against Israeli New Shekel, and 0.0522% against the offshore RMB. The rise in exchange rates between multiple currencies brings benefits to investors holding long positions in the corresponding currency, and also reflects the positive changes in economic or policy factors behind these currencies, attracting more attention and inflows, and promoting the further strengthening of related currencies in the foreign exchange market.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 on August 12, raising its average daily demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the 2025 level. This adjustment suggests that the global economy may recover to a certain extent in the future, and energy demand will increase accordingly. For countries that rely on oil imports, growth in oil demand means expansion of economic activity, and their currencies are expected to be supported by improved economic outlook. At the same time, the currencies of oil exporting countries may also be favored by the market due to the increase in oil revenue expectations, driving the trading popularity and appreciation expectations of related currencies in the foreign exchange market.
In the first six months of 2025, the ICE US dollar index fell by nearly 11%, the largest drop in the first half of the year since the Nixon era in 1973. At present, most people on Wall Street are not optimistic about the trend of the US dollar in the next year, and some even believe that the US dollar has begun a long-term depreciation cycle. The US dollar faces many negative factors, such as the increase in foreign exchange hedging demand. Global investors have changed their hedging strategies for risk exposure to the US dollar due to the strong performance of international stock markets outside the United States and the uncertainty of Trump's trade agenda. Continuous hedging of the US dollar's risk has become one of the key factors for the weakening of the US dollar in the first half of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. ehadb.cnpared with other major central banks in the world that have cut interest rates many times, the Federal Reserve may have greater room for interest rate cuts in the next year. The interest rate cut will weaken the attractiveness of US dollar assets and put a suppression on the US dollar exchange rate. In addition, although the US government has not stated it clearly, its actual policies seem to be inclined to weaken the US dollar, in order to enhance the ehadb.cnpetitiveness of US export ehadb.cnmodities and boost corporate profits, which is in line with Trump's intention to revive the US manufacturing industry.
The Japanese yen fell 0.7214% against Honduran Lempira, the Canadian dollar fell 0.3370% against Djiboutian franc, and the Fiji dollar fell 0.7094% against the Fiji dollar. The weakening of the exchange rate of these currencies may be due to the deterioration of the economic fundamentals behind them, such as slowing economic growth, widening trade deficits, loose monetary policy, etc., which has led to a decline in investors' confidence in these currencies and selling related currencies in the foreign exchange market, resulting in an increase in downward pressure on their exchange rate.
The RBA cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2023, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 80 basis points in the next year. At the same time, the economic growth expectations were significantly lowered, lowering the GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% in May to 1.7%. The series of measures taken by the RBA show that the Australian economy is facing great downward pressure. Although interest rate cuts are intended to stimulate the economy, they will reduce the yield on the Australian dollar assets. International capital will flow out of Australia in order to seek higher returns, resulting in an increase in the supply and decrease in demand in the foreign exchange market, which will pose a significant negative for the Australian dollar exchange rate. The Australian dollar will be against other majors.Currency exchange rate faces downward risks.
In the process of trading, investors need to pay close attention to the dynamic changes in these positive and negative news, as well as the ehadb.cnprehensive impact of their interweaving on the foreign exchange market, carefully formulate investment strategies, and reasonably control risks.
The above content is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influence the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully ehadb.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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