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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The range oscillation will be maintained before the CPI data is released." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex APP News-- During the US session on Monday (August 11), the US dollar trend was slightly strong, firmly standing above the 50-day moving average of 98.200. The dollar index fell to 97.945 last week — just in the middle of the short-term retracement range — but buyers seem to hold on to that support. Currently, the market is viewing 98.683 as a key hub. If the US dollar can break through this level cleanly, it is expected to launch an impact on the strong resistance range around 99.17–99.83. Market drivers The market focus is entirely on the U.S. inflation data released tomorrow and whether China and the United States will reach a consensus on tariff extensions. Traders have begun to adjust positions – aware of this from today’s mild volatility. If the CPI data is higher than expected, the threshold for the Fed's interest rate cut in September will increase, which will often provide a boost to the US dollar. But if inflation cools down, especially in a weak labor market, the likelihood of interest rate cuts will rebound—which could put pressure on the dollar index. Currently, the market expects the probability of interest rate cuts next month to be 90%, with a cumulative interest rate cut of about 58 basis points by the end of the year. This basically means two 25 basis points rate cuts, and if the situation worsens, there may be a third. From the US dollar perspective, expectations of interest rate cuts are often negative - unless other central banks around the world cut rates faster, which is the case now for the Bank of England (BoE) and the RBA.
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